The recent surrender by the Pakistani State to the Taliban in the Swat valley
may well turn out to be a watershed in the history of the Indian subcontinent.
In terms of long-term impact, this may even overshadow the recent mumbai
massacres. All signs point to the ‘Talibanisation’ of Pakistan. Here are
several pointers:

I A Rehman writing in the Dawn newspaper on February 12 says ‘the Pakistani
armed forces were indoctrinated in General Zia-ul Haq’s rule to reserve senior
posts for genuine Islamists. The Pakistan army may have the capacity to kill hordes of people, but it will not — and cannot — do that.’ The army and the State may well disintegrate if it does.

General Ashfaq Kayani, son of a former soldier, is the first non-elite chief of
the Pakistani army. Given his socio-economic background, he is more likely to be part of the ‘natural’ constituency of the Taliban. We have the example of Iran — on February 11, 1979, when the mass upsurge to impose ‘Islamic rule’ reached its zenith, the Iranian army declared its ‘neutrality’ in the ongoing conflict. This sealed the fate of the Shah of Iran. A similar happening in Pakistan is very likely.